As the old saying goes, form is only
temporary. But what makes a player's performance suddenly drop in
quality from one season to the next? Injuries, personal problems,
being played out of position, moving clubs, loss of confidence, lack
of motivation, falling out of favour, managerial changes, the ageing
process – there are many reasons why a player can go from being one
of the league's top performers one season to putting in mediocre or
poor performances the next.
Using unique player ratings from
whoscored.com, this article looks at the top 5 drops in
form from last season to this season so far, and aims to analyse the
possible reasons for these dramatic drops in form.
(*Note: Only players with total
appearances in each season greater than the average number of Premier
League appearances in that season are discussed in this article.
Therefore the likes of Papiss Cissé and Gylfi Sigurdsonn are not
included due to the fact they did not play more than 19 matches last
season).
5.
Antonio Valencia
Last
Season's Rating: 7.40 Last Season's
Ranking: 9th
This
Season's Rating: 6.91 This Season's
Ranking: 114th
Rating
Drop: 0.49 Ranking Drop:
105 Places
It seems harsh to include Valencia in
this list as he is not by any means having a terrible season. A
rating of 6.91, while not spectacular, is respectable and has
the Ecuadorian close to the top 100 Premier League players so far
this season. But according to whoscored ratings, there has been a
steep drop in performance compared to last season where he was one of
the ten top performers.
What went wrong?
The
short answer is that Valencia has stopped being the same lethal
assist-machine he was last season. In
27 appearances last
season (5 of which came as a substitute) Valencia notched up a hugely
impressive 13 assists,
the second highest in the league. When taking into account the
amount of games played, nobody could top Valencia's assist-per-game
ratio – close to 1 assist every 2 games.
He was on fantastic form down the United right-flank, a constant
outlet capable of beating his man and providing the perfect ball for
a United player (usually Rooney) to slot home. Valencia also chipped
in with 4 goals of
his own.
This
season he has assisted just 4 goals so far, with his assist-per-game
ratio dropping to about 1 assist in every 5 games –
not terrible, but a significant drop nonetheless. He is also yet to
score in the Premier League this season.
There
is one key stat which explains this drop in assists (and by
association his rating) – his cross accuracy.
Last season a massive 35.3%
of Valencia's crosses found their man, whereas this season this has
dropped off to a less impressive 19.8%.
Looking at the dribbling stats, Valencia is still maintaining an
effective ability to beat his man, but his end product as represented
by his crossing and key-passes-per-game
(down from 2.4 to 1.4)
has not been as effective.
Why
it went wrong
The arrival of Robin van Persie and,
to a lesser extent, Shinji Kagawa. United made two key signings in
attacking areas in the summer and this upset the status-quo in
United's offensive play that Valencia so enjoyed.
This was evident from the first match
of the season against Everton when he was forced to play right-back
to accommodate the new personnel. Rafael has since nailed down this
spot and Valencia has returned to his favoured right-wing position.
However, the system has changed somewhat and so has the main man in
attack.
A big reason for Valencia's excellent
performances was his understanding with Rooney. He seemed to know exactly where and when Rooney was going to make his run. The
introduction of Van Persie as the main centre-forward has broken up
this relationship as Rooney generally plays a deeper role to accommodate the Dutchman. Valencia has not been quite as effective as
a result.
Another reason could be that Valencia
has been singled out by defenders after his deadly performances last
season. While it would be unfair to label Valencia a 'one trick
pony', he is a direct winger who generally tries to beat his man on
the outside before putting in a right-footed cross. Defenders may
have 'worked him out' or perhaps have simply began administering
special attention to Valencia, doubling up on him or fouling him to
nullify his threat – he is being fouled more than last season
(up from 0.6 a game to 0.8) and has also been dispossessed
more (up from 1.1 per game to 1.5).
4. Michel Vorm
Last Season's Rating: 7.03 Last Season's Ranking: 34th
This Season's Rating: 6.53 This Season's Ranking: 233rd
Rating Drop: 0.50 Ranking Drop: 199 Places
Swansea City's Dutch goalkeeper was
labelled as one of the buys of the season last year as he helped the
Welsh club to an excellent 11th place finish in their
first Premier League season. His rating of 7.03 was the
highest of all goalkeepers in the league and he was linked with
several top clubs during the summer. However, this season, under a
new manager and after suffering an injury, Vorm's form (a bit of a
tongue-twister that) has regressed.
What
went wrong?
Last season Vorm kept 14 clean sheets
in 37 games (roughly one clean sheet every 2.6 games) yet so
far this season he has only managed 4 in 16 matches (one in every
4 matches). It's difficult to pinpoint one area where Vorm's
game has dropped. His save percentage has decreased nearly 5 % (from
74.9% last season to 70.1% this season), though this is
perhaps not a significant drop.
His pass accuracy has also gone down
slightly. Vorm is known to be great with his feet and under Brendan
Rodgers' possession-based football he had the highest pass completion
percentage of all goalkeepers in the league – 70.6%. This
has dropped this season to 62.5%, though this may be down to a
slightly more proactive, direct approach under Laudrup than a decline
in the passing of the player.
Vorm is known as a great penalty
stopper. Last year he lived up to his reputation, saving 2 out of
the 3 penalties faced, winning vital points for his team. This
year, of the 3 penalties so far faced, all 3 have been conceded.
But with such a small sample size, a large degree of variance is
always possible here, and it would be unfair to suggest that Vorm is
worse at saving penalties this year.
Perhaps more than any other area, his
low rating is most attributable to the amount of errors he has
made that have led directly to goals – 3 already this season
compared to none last. More than any other position, goalkeepers are
exposed and punished by errors, and the consistent Vorm of last
season has been more error prone of late.
Why
it went wrong
To a large degree, variance. More
than any other position goalkeepers will be affected by variance as
the margins are so fine and so decisive – the difference between a
clean sheet and a goal concession might be the width of a finger that
turned a penalty round the post, or guessing the right way to dive.
It would be unfair and unrealistic to expect Vorm to maintain a
penalty save percentage of 66% through his whole career. Simply put,
'luck' (or, more aptly, variance) was on Vorm's side last year,
whereas this year it has perhaps betrayed him somewhat.
However, there could be other factors
at play. Last season Vorm's ball-playing abilities were almost as
important as his shot-stopping as Swansea looked to keep possession
for as long as possible to prevent opposition imposing dominance on
the match. While Laudrup is far from a long-ball manager, this
change in manager and system means that Vorm is not called upon quite
so often to utilise his excellent passing skills.
Another big factor was the injury he
sustained in October which kept him out until December, and perhaps
more importantly, the form of his deputy Gerhard Tremmel in his
absence. The German performed excellently (with a whoscored rating
of 7.1), and a combination of this and Vorm's own shaky form
has made it unclear who is the current number one at Swansea at the
moment. Vorm's place is no longer guaranteed, a situation which
would have been almost unthinkable last summer. It could be argued
that the disruption caused by his injury and being unsure of his
place in the side has affected Vorm's performances.
3.
Joe Allen
Last Season's Rating: 7.11 Last Season's Ranking: 24th
This Season's Rating: 6.59 This Season's Ranking: 216th
Rating Drop: .52 Ranking Drop: 192 Places
With an average rating of 7.11,
Joe Allen was the shining star of a Swansea side that surprised
everyone last season with their excellent passing ability and
possession-based football. Allen's role was integral to this system,
so much so that Brendan Rodgers brought him with him to Liverpool in
an attempt to integrate this style of play in his new club. However,
a disappointing rating of 6.59 and a generally poor season for Liverpool suggests that he has struggled to do so thus
far.
What
went wrong?
Firstly, his defensive contribution
has slackened slightly – at Swansea he made 3.1 tackles per
game, but at Liverpool this has dropped by over a third to just 2
per game. Coupled with this is a slight drop in the amount of
interceptions he has made. One might argue that this is due to
having to defend less as he is now playing at a bigger club, but the
fact that Swansea had the same average amount of possession last
season as Liverpool this season (58%) would seem to counter this
claim.
Allen was bought predominantly to
retain and distribute possession through his composure on the ball
and passing ability. Surprisingly enough, statistically speaking,
there is not much of a drop off in this area of his game – his pass
accuracy and amount of passes have only decreased minimally. There
is perhaps some significance in the slight decrease of key passes
played – down from 1.3 a game to 0.9, but other than this the
statistics suggest Allen is passing almost as well as last season.
Offensively, Allen has contributed nothing this year for Liverpool in the Premier League – not a
single goal or assist (nor has he looked close to doing so). It
might be unfair to expect this from him, as the final third is not
really where he is expected to do much of his work, but last season
Allen managed to contribute something – 4 goals and 2 assists.
While chance creation is not his game, Allen completed at least a
small amount of crosses and through balls last season – this
season, however, Allen has not completed a single cross or through
ball. Added to this, his shot per game ratio has more than
halved, resulting in a practically non-existent attacking threat
from the Welshman.
Why
it went wrong
Allen could point to the fact that he
is still finding his feet at a new club – however his performances
have not improved as the season has gone on (in fact they were better
at the start of the season), and considering he is working under the
same manager this excuse is negated even further.
An obvious explanation for Allen's
drop in form is that he is struggling to deal with the pressure and
expectation that comes with playing for a club of Liverpool's
stature. Last season he had nothing to lose, playing for a team that
most expected to be relegated. This season every performance is
scrutinised by millions of fans worldwide. Coupled with this is the
weight of expectation that a £15m price-tag brings. One can only
speculate to what extent these factors have effected Allen mentally.
But perhaps another significant reason
is that he has yet to really nail down a specific role in the team –
Lucas's injury in the second match of the season meant Allen began
his Liverpool career covering as a deep-lying defensive midfielder.
He actually did a decent job deputising here – his rating as a
defensive midfielder is a fairly respectable 6.84. However,
since Lucas's return, he has struggled to fit in in an unbalanced
Liverpool midfield. This season Gerrard's role in the team has
changed significantly – he is no longer the attack-minded
midfielder who scores goals and makes runs into the opposition box.
Instead he has begun to play a much deeper, playmaking role in
centre-midfield, as age begins to catch up with him. This change has
left Allen floundering without a position in the first team to call
his own. We have seen in the losses to Manchester United and Aston
Villa recently that a combination of Lucas, Gerrard and Allen is
unbalanced and does not work as they all play too deep to function
together. Allen was given the role of the most advanced midfielder
against United, and he performed poorly. This was no surprise. As
we have seen from his stats, Allen has never been an effective player
in the final third, even when he was on good form with Swansea –
this is not his role nor has it ever been.
Rodgers has now given up on this trio
in midfield, and it was inevitably Allen who has made way to the
bench. Since Lucas came back from injury Allen has had to play the
majority of games as part of an unbalanced midfield, out of position
as an advanced midfielder, or had to make do with just 5 or 10
minutes playing time off the bench – Allen's average rating during
this period is an extremely low 6.24 (only two players in the
Premier League have a lower rating than that this season).
2.
Samir Nasri
Last Season's Rating: 7.23 Last Season's Ranking: 15th
This Season's Rating: 6.70 This Season's Ranking: 194th
Rating Drop: 0.53 Ranking Drop: 179 places
Samir Nasri takes second place on this
list, after failing to build on a good first season where he contributed some important goals and assists during Manchester City's successful league campaign. His rating of 6.70 can be described as mediocre at best,
but when taking into account his massive wages and the fact he is
playing for the reigning Champions who are expected to win most
games, it appears particularly poor.
What
went wrong?
Nasri is not assisting or scoring
goals at the same rate as last season. In Manchester City's title
winning season Nasri scored 5 goals and set up a further 9 in 30
appearances (4 of which were as a substitute). In other words,
roughly every 2 games he was contributing towards a goal. This
season, in 18 appearances (4 as a sub), he has scored just once, and
made three assists, translating to a goal contribution only every
4.5 matches.
Looking at his offensive and passing
stats, it's actually quite difficult to see where exactly it's going
wrong for Nasri. He has maintained a very high pass completion
percentage, he is dribbling past opponents with the same frequency,
his crosses are seemingly as accurate and he is not being
dispossessed any more than last season. However, with Nasri's role
as a creative midfielder rather than a traditional winger in an
attack-minded team there is one very important stat that stands out –
the amount of through balls played.
Last season Nasri was one of the few
through ball masters of the Premier League, playing the joint
second most successful through balls per game – 14
defence-splitting passes in his 30 appearances, or close to one
in every two games. Considering that playing a successful
throughball results in a relatively high possibility of a goal, and
given the fact that they are such a rare occurrence, even what might
seem like a modest drop in this statistic can be very significant.
This year Nasri has completed just 3 through balls – or
roughly one in every seven games. The reason for this tail-off is
not down to poor execution, but instead due to a decrease in the
amount he has attempted. Last year he attempted close to 41
through balls (1.5 per game) whereas so far this season he has
attempted a grand total of just 6 (.3 per game). This
has inevitably led to a significant drop in scoring chances he has
created.
Not only is Nasri not risking so many
game-changing passes, but he is also attempting fewer shots – last
season he shot at goal twice a game on average, whereas this year
this has halved to just one shot per game, so his paltry goal
tally of just one goal could be attributable to this.
Finally, a red card against Norwich
and an error against city rivals Manchester United have both
contributed towards a poor rating so far this season.
Why
it went wrong
Unlike Valencia and Vorm, Nasri can
apportion a certain amount of blame onto his fellow teammates –
Nasri is not the only player struggling for form at City this season.
Last season Nasri's club were dominant, but this year they have
stuttered, failing to mount a serious defence of their title. It can
be difficult to play well in a team that is struggling as a whole.
However, Nasri has been a key part of
this collective failure and has stood out more than his teammates
(hence his inclusion on this list) so this excuse only stretches so
far. So what explains Nasri's drop in performances beyond this
explanation?
The significant drop in the amount of
through balls and shots attempted might suggest a drop in confidence
– if a player is not attempting the risky, difficult moves that can
make you look like a genius or a fool then perhaps it is because the
player is not feeling confident in his ability to execute them.
However, Nasri might also argue that a
lack of movement in attack has allowed fewer opportunities to play the
type of goal-creating passes he played last year – key striker
Sergio Aguero was injured for several matches at the start of the
season and has not quite been in the same deadly form as last season;
Tevez is not the type of striker that routinely looks to run onto
defence-splitting passes behind the defence; Edin Dzeko is more
effective converting crosses from a traditional wide-man, rather than
a creative passer like Nasri; and the recently departed Balotelli was
simply awful when called upon this season.
A final reason (a reason that many
disgruntled City fans who have lost patience with Nasri's
performances will point to) could be simply a lack of effort and
motivation. His vital error in the last minute against Manchester
United – where he shirked his responsibilities in the Man City
wall, hiding behind Dzeko and sticking a lazy leg out which deflected
Van Persie's free kick into the corner of the goal – was, for
many, indicative of a player who does not show enough fight on the
pitch.
1. Emmanuel Adebayor
Last Season's Rating: 7.22 Last Season's Ranking: 16th
This Season's Rating: 6.58 This Season's Ranking: 223rd
Rating Drop: 0.64 Ranking Drop: 207 Places
Topping this list, and claiming the undesirable title of the the Premier League player who has seen the most drastic dip in form this season, is Tottenham's Emmanuel
Adebayor. The Togolese striker has failed to reproduce his performances from an impressive first season with Spurs where he was the fifth highest ranked striker, productive
with both goals and assists, attaining an excellent rating of 7.22. This season he has seen his rating plummet, dropping more than any
other other player in the Premier League.
What went wrong?
17 goals and 11 assists in 31 matches
last season translated to Adebayor contributing towards a goal
almost every game last season – Van Persie, Rooney and Aguero
were the only strikers that could boast better goal contribution
stats. This impressive record has dropped dramatically to just 2
goals and 0 assists in 16 appearances this season. Adebayor is
simply not creating or scoring at anywhere near the same rate as last
season.
Looking at the stats to explain this
decline, we can see that Adebayor's shooting ratio has halved this
season – from 3 shots a game to 1.6, suggesting he is not
getting into the same positions as last year, or is not willing to
try his luck quite so often. His key passes have also decreased
slightly – from 1.8 per game to 1.2. We saw in our
discussion of Nasri the importance of throughballs – Adebayor
played 7 successfully last season but has managed just 1 so far this
season.
Added to this is a slight decrease in
the amount of Aerial Duels won – an important statistic for
a player of Adebayor's style – down from 1.9 per game to 1.5.
A red card after just 18 minutes in
the North London derby has not helped his cause either.
Why it went wrong?
An explanation symathetic towards
Adebayor would suggest that the sacking of Harry Redknapp and
appointment of Villas-Boas has been the main reason for his loss of form. Villas-Boas plays a different formation and style to
his predecessor, and it might be argued that Adebayor's languid style
and ability to play as a target man does not fit the new playing
philosophy introduced at the club.
Added to this, Adebayor might argue
that he has not had an extended run in the first team. With just one
striking role at the club, the Togolese international has seen his
appearances limited (6 of his 16 appearances have come as a
substitute), as Jermaine Defoe has been favoured in attack.
Injuries, suspension and participation at the African Cup of Nations
have further disrupted his season. Adebayor has perhaps not had
chance to settle and make an impact in a newlook Spurs team.
The departure of Van der Vaart and
Modric may also have impacted heavily on Adebayor's performance.
With two key men leaving (as well as a new manager) the balance of
the team has changed significantly and Adebayor may still be having
trouble adapting. Van de Vaart's departure in particular will have
effected him – playing in behind Adebayor last season, the Dutchman
complemented him perfectly and many of Van de Vaart's 11 goals last
season were set up by Adebayor.
A more cynical explanation for
Adebayor's poor displays this season is his contractual situation. It might be suggested that the Togolese forward, on loan from Man
City last season, was playing for a contract at Spurs, and, now that
he has achieved a permanent deal, he is no longer making the same
effort. Dietmar Hammann seems to hold this opinion, questioning Adebayor's mentality and
focus during Tottenham's dramatic win over West Ham last night – 'talent counts for nothing if you don't have the right head
on your shoulders' he tweeted. For a player who has a history of changing clubs
frequently, there might be something to this theory.
With Defoe's recent injury, Adebayor
has been given the chance of a sustained run in the Spurs attack and
prove his critics wrong, though the signs so far suggest he may not seize it.
A Note On Those Who Missed Out
As stated earlier, only those who have
appeared in a greater number of matches than the average amount have
been included. However, if we were to include those who signed in
last season's January transfer window then the list would look quite
different.
If Papiss Cissé had been
included he would almost certainly have topped the list. He took the
Premier League by storm at the end of last season, scoring 13 goals
in his 14 appearances. This season he has been comparitively very
disappointing, with a rating of just 6.59. Gylfi
Sigurdsonn (6.44) and Nikica Jelavic (6.70)
are two other players who would have contested this list, having both
failed to build on impressive starts in the Premier League at the end
of last season.
Mario Balotelli has
played enough games in both seasons to be included in this list, but
I made the decision to leave him out due to his recent departure to
Serie A. However, with a rating drop of 0.68 (down from
7.01 to 6.33) he would have
pipped Adebayor at the top of this list.
All statistics taken from whoscored.com
Follow me on Twitter: @ErwinMorzadec