'The
idea that Serie A is defensive is completely out of date. Anyone
who's seen Roma, Napoli, Inter or Lazio recently wouldn't call it
defensive.'
'One
of the greatest untruths touted about a football league is that
Serie A is boring. But the mud seems to have stuck regarding Serie
A'.
Replies to the thread
'Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga – Differences?' on
boards.ie, December 2012.
Stereotypes
As
mentioned in the previous article and as alluded to in the
quotes above, Serie A seems to have gained a reputation as being a
'boring' and defensive league. Articles such as this from
bornoffside.net refer to a 'defensive mindset [which] seems to be
drilled into the psyche of the players'. When English teams face
Serie A opposition in the Champions League, commentators will often
warn viewers that the Italians will likely be difficult to break down
due to the supposedly unshakeable national trait of prioritising
defensiveness solidity at the expense of attacking or fluid football.
Teams
are defensive, emphasis is on tactics, keeping a clean sheet and
attempting to score on the counterattack. The Italians brought the
style of Catenaccio to football, so it is perhaps
natural to assume that this style prevails in their national league's
footballing identity.
However,
we have already seen the folly of believing stereotypes about leagues
based on only watching a select few teams from a league, believing
what 'experts' tell us, confusing the footballing style of a
country's national team with that of its league or believing that a
league's style does not change or evolve over time. The quotes
above, if they are to be believed, would suggest that similar
misrepresentations are being made about Serie A – they claim it is
now an exciting and attacking league, and the days of Catenaccio are
long gone.
Like
in the last article, I will analyse statistics from the Top 4 leagues
to ascertain the truth of these assertions about Serie A, while also
attempting to draw any interesting conclusions from the other top
European leagues in the process.
But
first we must clarify an important term.
What is 'Boring'?
What does the term 'boring' mean in
football? It might seem a difficult question to answer as the term
is subjective. In general, something is not inherently boring. For
example, the statement 'The Godfather is a boring film' is not
a statement of fact, rather a subjective opinion. We have seen this
in football also with the recent debate about Spain's dominant
International side – some see their football as fantastic to watch,
while others see it as slow, boring, repetitive and unadventurous.
So how can we possibly measure how
statictically 'boring' a league is? How can we prove or disprove the
subjective claim that Serie A boring?
Well, we have to transform 'boring'
from a subjective term to an objective, measureable statistic by
inferring what the majority of football fans, pundits, writers and
commentators mean when they use the term. There is a clue in the
other word that is also often dispariginly pinned to Serie A –
'defensive'.
The bottom line when we talk about
excitement and boringness in football is goals. It goes
without saying that goals are usually the most exciting moments of a
football match. A lot of goals? Exciting football. A nil-nil draw
or a one-nil win? Boring. This is the way football is predominantly
viewed. 'One-nil to the Arsenal' was sung by Arsenal fans, while
opposition fans chanted 'Boring, boring Arsenal'. The last World Cup
in 2010 was widely received as a 'boring' World Cup due to its low
goals tally of 2.27 goals per game. Chelsea and Liverpool's
low-scoring Champions League clashes last decade were frequently
labelled 'boring' and groans of despair could be heard across the
football world when they were once again drawn against each other in
2009. These are just a few examples of many that reveal the common
acceptance that a lack of goals generally means a lack of
entertainment.
I have reservations about equating
goals with excitement. For me football is about more than just
goals, and at times a nil nil draw can be an incredibly engrossing
and interesting match. However, for many this is probably not the
case, and it is true that frequently a goalless game can be
disappointing for the spectator and that usually the most memorable
moments and highlights from a match are the goals. In any case, as
we have seen, there are countless examples that suggest that when the
term 'boring' is used in football it refers to a lack of goals. A
low goal tally could also be seen as an indicator of defensive
football, as a greater emphasis on defending by teams throughout a
league should typically result in more low-scoring games.
So to determine whether or not Serie
A is a particularly boring and defensive league, we need to examine
the amount of goals scored in that league in comparision to the other
top leagues across Europe.
Goals per Game
Like in the last article, we'll look
at the statistics from the last full season, 2011-12, as they contain
the most current and relevant complete data. If the stereotypes are
true, we should expect a relatively low goals per game tally in Serie
A. Here are the results.
Based
on last season, there would seem to be some credibility to the
stereotypes about Serie A.
They
have the lowest goal-per-game tally across the four leagues, with the
Bundesliga pipping the Premier League and La Liga, which all have
significantly higher tallies.
So
based on this evidence, it would be fair to conclude that last season
Serie A was the most boring (in the previously outlined
interpretation of the word) league amongst the top European leagues.
However, the discussion does not end here. The labelling of Serie A
as a boring league is not something new – it has been heard
throughout the years. While last season is of course the most
recent and therefore most relevant data, it is worth looking at an
average across recent years to see if these figures represent an
ongoing trend, season on season.
In
this ten year representation of goals Serie A, once again, comes out
at the bottom of the pile. Their ten-year-average is just .02 goals
more than last season's tally suggesting it was typical for Serie A
in relation to recent trends. We can also see that the Bundesliga
has consistently provided the most 'exciting' football in terms of
goals scored, and that last season was nothing new or exceptional.
What
is more interesting is the tallies of La Liga and, in particular, the
Premier League. We can see that last seasons tallies were
significantly higher than the ten-year average.
In
fact the Premier League and La Liga have experienced a goal explosion
recently. The two
most recent seasons in the Premier League have been the highest since
its inception, and the one previous was also relatively high (2.77
gpg). La Liga has also seen a marked increase in goals in the last
four seasons. So then why are their ten-year averages so comparably
low?
The
obvious answer is that their have been some comparably low-scoring
seasons in this ten year period. The three seasons between 2004 and
2007 in the Premier League saw a combined average of just 2.5 goals –
less than Serie A's average tally or their tally last year. La Liga
had a similar tally during these three seasons – 2.51. So if Serie
A is a boring league, then the Premier League and La Liga were for
several seasons too, and have only recently become more entertaining.
Yet
Serie A continued to have its boring reputation during these years
(as was stated earlier, this is not a new tag ascribed to Italian
football) when it was in fact slightly more 'exciting' than the
English and Spanish leagues during these seasons.
What's
more, despite Serie A coming out bottom over the ten year period, the
differences between the leagues (high-scoring Bundesliga aside) are
relatively trivial – just a .05 difference between Serie A and the
Premier League and a further .03 between the Premier League and La
Liga.
So
again – if Serie A is boring, the Premier League and La Liga are
barely more exciting. In the last decade there appears to be no
statistical evidence to support the claim that Serie A, in
particular, is exceptionally boring. So where do these claims come
from?
One potential answer is suggested in
a quote at the beginning of this article, which describes the idea
that Serie A is boring and defensive as 'out of date'. There is a
suggestion here that Serie A indeed was a boring league in the
past, but has become more exciting in recent years, yet its
reputation as boring has continued to pervade – or, in other words,
as the other quote states, 'the mud has stuck'.
Looking at the average goal per game
data from past decades should reveal whether this theory is correct.
We can see a colossal difference in
the amount of goals per game in the 70s and 80s compared with the 90s
and 2000s. The 1970s and 80s saw the goal per game rate barely
exceed two goals – something incredibly rare in football. Indeed,
this twenty-year period saw seven seasons drop below the 2
goals-per-game mark. Having looked at data across a range of leagues
and years, these years are unparallelled in their consistent scarcity
of goals. Serie A during these years was an exceptionally boring
league.
In other words, Serie A now is
nothing like it once was, and there seems to be considerable evidence
to support the quotee's claim that the ideas about it are out of date
– it was vastly more boring in the 70s and 80s than it is now.
One might argue that just because it
was exceptionally boring in the past, that does not exclude it
from being at least a bit boring now. However, we have already seen
that in recent years Serie A does not stand out from the Premier
League and La Liga. To further counter this claim, let's have a look
at Serie A's most recent decade alongside other widely watched
leagues and competitions.
In order to see if their total of
2.58 for the last decade stands out as exceptionally low, I have
included probably the most prestiguous, widely watched and highest
quality competitions (excluding those already examined) alongside
Serie A: The World Cup and European Championships (in
which, due to their infrequency and to provide a greater
representation, I have included tournaments from the last twenty
years), the Champions League, the Europa League (due to
a lack of easily available data and it's recent change of format I've
only included the last 5 seasons) and France's Ligue 1 (which
is often included as part of a 'top 5' of Euorpean Leagues, but which
I have left out of my detailed analysis due to the fact I think it is
significantly weaker than the 'top 4' leagues).
This table puts an end to the debate
about Serie A being a boring and defensive league. It sees more
goals than the modern era of the most famous and prestiguous
tournament in the world – the World Cup. It also has a
significantly higher goal rate than the European Championships. Its
goal rate is comparable to Europe's premier club competition and
pinnacle of club football, the Champions League. We can see that
the real boring league of Europe is France's Ligue 1 which has a far
lower goal rate of just 2.29.
Conclusions
Taking the word 'boring' to mean a
paucity of goals, statistics show that the quotes at the start of
this article are accurate in their appraisals – the stereotypes
about Serie A being boring and defensive are as false as those that
label the Premier League as a predominantly long-ball league.
The introduction of 3 points for a
win in 199 4 marked the end for a defensive style which was already
showing signs of being abandoned in the late 80s and early 90s.
Since then Serie A has been much the same as La Liga and the Premier
League, with most seasons falling into the standard range of between
2.5 and 2.7 goals per game.
Those who wish to hang on to their
dismissive claims towards Italian football will be reassured by the
fact that Serie A had a lower goals tally last year compared to the
other top leagues, and also the lowest of the four leagues over a
ten-year period. However, this is, as has been shown, a limited view
of the statistics.
It would appear that many are
confusing today's Serie A with the Serie A of the 70s and 80s. This
is very strange considering Italian football was nowhere near as
accessible to a foreign audience during this period compared to now.
Also many who today spout claims about the league being boring would
have been very young or not alive at all in these decades. In short,
when Serie A was boring, not many non-Italians were watching
it.
This serves as a possible indicator
about where false footballing stereotypes predominantly originate –
namely, word of mouth and repetition. We have already discussed the
possible varying sources of stereotypes, but the example of Serie A
seems to suggest the number one reason is uncomplicated – the
stereotypes are just assumed truths, presented as a sort of
footballing 'common knowledge', shared and repeated so many times
that they are unchallenged and taken for fact. Despite the highly
popular Gazetta Football Italia in the 90s and greater access to live
matches and highlights through satellite TV and the internet in the
last decade (not to mention the fact that recent decades should
logically be fresher in the memory) it is somehow the Italian
football style of previous decades which has remained at the
forefront of the imagination of many when they think about Serie A.
In other words, it appears these
claims are not based on any kind of football-watching at all.
However it is worth discussing the other suggested reasons for the
perpetuation of footballing stereotypes in relation to Serie A.
The comments of commentators and
'experts' can be seen as an extension of the previous point – few
if any of these pundits watch or even casually follow Serie A, but
they need to say something and thus revert to the easy
stereotypes about 'tight' defences. These comments certainly
perpetuate these false beliefs, as they are coming from supposed
experts so can be repeated by fans with a sense of authority attached
to them.
Another explanation could be the
categorisation of an entire league based on the biggest and most
successful clubs within it. We saw this with La Liga falsely gaining
a reputation as a 'tiki-taka' league based predominantly on the
example of Barcelona, and something similar might have wrongly
influenced some opinions with regards to Serie A. The Champions
League is the arena in which most fans watch teams from other
countries, so many might have formed opinions (or more likely
reaffirmed what they already believed) after the all-Italian final of
2003 which finished goalless after extra-time, taking this as
evidence of typically defensive and boring Italian football. Some
might also call to mind Fabio Capello's great AC Milan team of 1994
which won both the European Cup and Serie A. Founding their success
on an incredibly strong defence, Milan somehow won the league with a
paltry 36 goals in 34 matches, and their matches in the league that
season averaged out at an unprecedentedly low 1.5 goals per game.
The logic for many then might have been along the same lines of what
is happening with Barcelona now – as the best and most famous team
in their respective countries, they are the best representative of
the assumed style in that country. Therefore, those following Serie
A in 1994 might have logically (in their minds at least) made the
invalid argument that, because Milan are boring, Serie A is too.
This would ignore the fact that an average of 2.47 goals-per-game
were scored by the other clubs of Serie A that season, not at all a
low tally considering 3 points for a win had not yet been introduced.
A final possible reason for the
false beliefs about Serie A was mentioned in the last article – a
propensity to confuse the style of the national team with that of its
national league. This is possibly at play with England and Spain
with regards to passing style, but it is perhaps with Italy that this
confusion prevails most strongly. The most successful Italian team
of recent times was the 2006 World Cup winning squad, which had an
incredibly strong defence. They conceded just 2 goals in 7 games on
their way to victory and their games averaged just 2 goals per game.
The national team has been seemingly quite defensive in the major
tournaments in the modern era (since 1990), with their matches
averaging out at 2.03 goals-per-game in their 59 matches (although it
should be noted that the dynamics of knock-out matches where avoiding
defeat is paramount are very different to league matches where the
incentive of 3 points for the win encourages a more risky approach).
Add to the fact that, as Fabio Cannavaro states, Italy 'have
always been good at defending and shouldn't be ashamed of that'
(link), and have historically produced great defenders
(Baresi, Maldini, Cannavaro, Nesta to name just a few), it is perhaps
understandable that people associate Italy (and by association Serie
A) with defending.
Looking solely at goals-per-game as
the one variable to decide such a broad, subjective and difficult
concept of what exactly 'boring' means in football may seem limited.
The word is often also used in relation to other factors, such as
competivity (or a lack of it) and we will look at this in the next
article. However, as has been discussed, goals are the essence of
what we mean when we use this term. In this sense Serie A is not
boring. At the time of writing Serie A seems to be following the
previously mentioned 'goal explosion' trend that has recently
appeared across top European leagues, notching up a high tally of
2.73 goals-per-game so far this season.
One could ignore all the goals now
flying in in Serie A, stick to their guns and say that they think
it's boring and that's their opinion, and it would be
difficult to argue with that – however no one who makes such a
claim would have watched even a small percentage of the thousands of
matches played across Europe in recent years, while statistics
capture the data in its entirety. I know who I trust more.
Follow me on Twitter @ErwinMorzadec
Nice article
ResponderEliminarAnother thing you could look at is the goal score line averages. For instance a league that has a high amount of goals may have numerous thrashings, like 4-0 5-0 etc scorelines. Many would consider this to be boring.